# Austin Spring 2026 Housing Forecast: Price Tracker by Neighborhood
Spring is traditionally the most active season in Austin real estate, and 2026 is no exception — though the dynamics have changed dramatically from the frenzied springs of 2021 and 2022. This year, instead of scrambling to outbid twenty other offers, buyers are walking into open houses with leverage they haven't had in nearly a decade. Sellers, meanwhile, are recalibrating expectations and learning the art of strategic pricing.
This comprehensive price tracker covers twelve of Austin's most important neighborhoods, drawing on the latest MLS data from February and March 2026, supplemented by insights from the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR), the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC), and Zillow's Home Value Index. Whether you are buying your first home, relocating for a tech job, or building a rental portfolio, this is your ground-truth guide to where prices stand right now — and where they are heading over the next six months.
Metro-Wide Snapshot: The Big Picture
Before diving into neighborhoods, the metro-level numbers set the context. The Austin-Round Rock MSA median home price as of March 2026 is approximately $415,000, reflecting a modest 2.8% year-over-year decline. Active listings across the metro have grown 18% compared to March 2025, pushing months of inventory to 6.7 months — a level not seen since 2012.
The average days on market (DOM) now sits at 88 days, up from 72 days a year ago. Crucially, the percentage of listings with at least one price reduction has climbed to 42%, signaling that sellers are still adjusting to the new reality. Mortgage rates are hovering around 5.8%, with most forecasters expecting them to settle between 5.2% and 5.6% by late summer as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle.
These metro-wide figures, however, mask enormous variation between neighborhoods. The central core behaves very differently from the suburban fringe, and even adjacent ZIP codes can tell different stories.
Downtown & Rainey District (78701)
•Median Price (Condo): $485,000
•YoY Change: -4.2%
•Days on Market: 105
•Price/Sq Ft: $520
Downtown Austin has felt the correction most acutely in the condo market. The wave of luxury high-rises delivered between 2023 and 2025 — including the 44-story tower at Rainey and the mixed-use development at Republic Square — has created a genuine supply glut. Condo inventory in 78701 stands at 9.2 months, well into buyer's market territory.
However, the rental market tells a different story. Occupancy rates in Class A buildings remain above 92%, buoyed by corporate relocations and the steady stream of young professionals entering Austin's tech workforce. For investors, the play is to acquire condos at a discount to replacement cost and capture rental income while waiting for the supply pipeline to thin out over the next 18-24 months.
South Lamar & Zilker (78704)
•Median Price (SFH): $1.28 million
•YoY Change: -1.9%
•Days on Market: 68
•Price/Sq Ft: $645
The 78704 ZIP code remains Austin's blue-chip residential market. Even in a broadly softening environment, South Lamar and Zilker maintain tighter inventory than most neighborhoods (3.8 months), and homes that are priced correctly still receive multiple offers. The correction here has been modest — roughly 5% from the 2022 peak — compared to the 15-20% drawdowns seen in suburban markets.
The driver is scarcity. There is almost no undeveloped land left in Zilker, and the Barton Hills neighborhood carries historic-district protections that limit new construction. Buyers in this market are typically high-income professionals or downsizers from larger suburban homes, and they are less rate-sensitive than first-time buyers.
East Austin (78702)
•Median Price (SFH): $735,000
•YoY Change: +1.4%
•Days on Market: 62
•Price/Sq Ft: $510
East Austin is one of the few Austin neighborhoods still posting positive year-over-year price growth in early 2026. The reason is infrastructure. The Plaza Saltillo transit-oriented development has matured into a genuine mixed-use neighborhood center, and the continued build-out of creative office space east of I-35 has created local job density that supports housing demand independent of the broader metro trend.
The Project Connect light rail announcement, with two stops planned for the East Side corridor, has added a long-term appreciation catalyst. For investors, the duplexes and ADU-friendly lots along East Cesar Chavez continue to offer some of the best rental yields in the urban core, with cap rates in the 5.0-5.5% range.
Mueller (78723)
•Median Price (SFH): $590,000
•YoY Change: -2.1%
•Days on Market: 74
•Price/Sq Ft: $375
The master-planned Mueller community offers a unique value proposition: walkability, parks, and a mixed-use town center at a price point significantly below the central core. The slight price decline reflects broader market conditions rather than any fundamental weakness — Mueller's HOA-managed aesthetics and proximity to major employers keep demand steady.
The neighborhood is particularly attractive to families and remote workers who value quality of life without the premium of a 78704 address. With the redevelopment of the adjacent ACC Highland campus nearing completion, the area's amenity base is expanding further.
North Austin Tech Corridor (78758)
•Median Price (SFH): $510,000
•YoY Change: -3.5%
•Days on Market: 82
•Price/Sq Ft: $310
The Wooten and North Burnet areas have seen a sharper correction than the urban core, driven primarily by new construction competition from The Domain and nearby mixed-use developments. However, the fundamental thesis remains intact: Apple's billion-dollar campus is operational, Samsung's Taylor facility is ramping production, and the ratio of new jobs to new housing units in this corridor remains heavily tilted toward demand.
For buy-and-hold investors, the current pricing represents an attractive entry point. Single-family rentals in 78758 are leasing within 14 days at rents of $2,200-$2,600/month, yielding gross rent multipliers that pencil out favorably compared to central Austin.
Cedar Park & Leander (78613, 78641)
•Median Price (SFH): $425,000 (Cedar Park) / $385,000 (Leander)
•YoY Change: -5.8% (Cedar Park) / -6.2% (Leander)
•Days on Market: 96 (Cedar Park) / 108 (Leander)
•Price/Sq Ft: $225 (Cedar Park) / $195 (Leander)
The Williamson County suburbs have absorbed the deepest price declines in the metro, driven by an oversupply of new construction. Builders in Leander are offering $15,000-$30,000 in incentives — rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and appliance packages — to move inventory. For first-time buyers, this translates to historic value: a new four-bedroom home in Leander with a builder-subsidized rate near 4.5% is a monthly payment that would have been unimaginable two years ago.
The risk factor is absorption time. With over 1,200 active listings in Leander alone and new subdivisions still delivering lots, the market may not tighten significantly until mid-2027. Patient buyers can wait for further concessions; investors should model for a 12-18 month lease-up period.
Pflugerville (78660)
•Median Price (SFH): $395,000
•YoY Change: -4.7%
•Days on Market: 91
•Price/Sq Ft: $210
Pflugerville occupies the sweet spot between suburban affordability and metro accessibility. The completion of the SH-130 toll road improvements has reduced commute times to downtown to under 25 minutes, and the school district (PISD) remains one of the region's strongest draws for families. The price decline has been more modest than Leander, and inventory levels are lower (5.1 months), suggesting the market is closer to equilibrium.
Kyle & Buda (78640, 78610)
•Median Price (SFH): $365,000 (Kyle) / $410,000 (Buda)
•YoY Change: -7.1% (Kyle) / -5.4% (Buda)
•Days on Market: 112 (Kyle) / 94 (Buda)
•Price/Sq Ft: $185 (Kyle) / $215 (Buda)
The southern corridor has experienced the metro's steepest declines. Kyle, in particular, saw massive speculative building during the boom years, and the market is now working through that oversupply. At 112 days on market, Kyle has the longest average DOM in the metro. For distressed-deal hunters and wholesalers, this presents opportunity — but only with a clear exit strategy and realistic underwriting.
Buda, with its stronger school district (Hays CISD) and closer proximity to the central employment core, is correcting more gently and is likely to stabilize first.
Southeast Austin & Montopolis (78741)
•Median Price (SFH): $445,000
•YoY Change: +0.8%
•Days on Market: 71
•Price/Sq Ft: $295
Montopolis and the surrounding 78741 area continue to benefit from the convergence of three powerful forces: proximity to Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, the Tesla Gigafactory employment base, and Federal Opportunity Zone tax incentives. This is one of only two Austin neighborhoods (alongside 78702) still posting positive price growth.
The Opportunity Zone designation cannot be overstated for long-term investors. Capital gains invested into qualified OZ funds in this area and held for 10 years are eligible for zero federal capital gains tax on appreciation — a benefit that fundamentally changes the return profile of any investment.
Q2-Q3 2026 Forecast: What Comes Next
Based on current data trends, our forecast for the next six months:
•Mortgage rates will ease to the 5.2-5.5% range by August, unlocking a wave of demand from sidelined buyers and triggering a modest price floor across most neighborhoods.
•Suburban markets (Leander, Kyle) will continue to see new construction concessions through summer, with pricing stabilizing by Q4 as builder starts decline in response to inventory levels.
•Central Austin (78704, 78702, 78723) will remain the most resilient, with prices holding steady or appreciating 1-3% through the year.
•The condo market (78701) will take longer to recover — expect inventory to remain elevated through 2026, with the best buying opportunities emerging in Q3 when developers are most motivated to clear units before year-end.
•Rental demand will strengthen as affordability constraints keep more households in the rental market, benefiting buy-and-hold investors across all neighborhoods.
How to Use This Data
For buyers: print this tracker, identify your target neighborhoods, and set price alerts. When a listing in your target zone drops below the median with DOM above 60 days, you have leverage. Negotiate for closing cost credits, rate buydowns, or repair allowances.
For sellers: price to the current median from day one. Overpricing by even 5% in this market adds 30-45 days to your timeline. Professional staging and photography are table stakes — every listing competing for the same buyer pool must present flawlessly.
For investors: focus on the neighborhoods with positive or flat YoY growth (78702, 78741) for appreciation plays. For cash flow, target the suburban markets where price declines have pushed rental yields to attractive levels. And always, always run your numbers against current — not projected — rents and expenses.
Austin Signals provides real-time market intelligence for Austin real estate professionals and investors. Explore live deals and neighborhood analytics at austinsignals.com.